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What has happened since the last figures

2 Sept 2026

The read · written by claude-opus-5, not a person

2 Sept 2026

Your floor is EUR 2,441/t and rising. Norway is the cheap route in.

Finnish scrap left the country at EUR 2,441/t in June, up 3.2% on the month — that is what your suppliers get without you, and it is the number to negotiate against. Norwegian material landed in the EU at EUR 2,029/t, well under the EUR 2,210/t Europe pays internally. Exchange stocks at a 36-year low and a proposed EU export duty pull in opposite directions over the next year.

  1. Their outside offer is strong this quarter. Finland ships out several times more scrap than it imports, so the export price is a real competitor for domestic material rather than a footnote. At EUR 2,441/t and rising, a supplier who does not like your offer has somewhere to go.
  2. Norway is the cheapest way into Europe, by a wide margin. Norwegian scrap landed at EUR 2,029/t against EUR 2,210/t from inside the union and EUR 2,812/t from the US. It is CIF, so freight is already in the number, and 4,063 t a month is enough volume to be a real supply option. The euro is also up 8.3% on the krone over the year, which does the same work without anyone renegotiating.
  3. The metal your suppliers quote against is falling, but stocks are at a 36-year low. The benchmark is down 11.7% since May, which usually drags scrap asking prices with it. Against that, exchange stocks are the lowest since 1990 and US scrap prices rose 3.8% over the same two months. Expect firm asks despite the falling benchmark.
›The figures behind this, what would change it, and what it cannot see

Figures cited

  • Eurostat CN 7602, June 2026: Finnish scrap leaving the EU at EUR 2,441/t, 4,163 t, +3.2% on the month
  • Eurostat CN 7602, May 2026: Finland exported 6,681 t and imported 1,075 t
  • Eurostat CN 7602 imports, June 2026: Norway EUR 2,029/t, Switzerland EUR 2,113/t, UK EUR 2,395/t, US EUR 2,812/t
  • ECB, 2 Sept 2026: EUR/NOK up 8.3% over the year
  • IMF via FRED: metal EUR 2,766/t in July, −11.7% since May
  • World Bank Pink Sheet, July 2026: aluminium $3,161/t, −8.1% on the month
  • US PPI, all aluminium base scrap: +3.8% over the same two months

Would change this

  • The EU's proposed 15% scrap export duty reaches a published text — Your floor drops. The export price your suppliers price against stops being available to them, and long fixed prices agreed before that look expensive.
  • The krone or krona weakens further against the euro — Norwegian and Swedish scrap gets cheaper for you without anyone renegotiating. The krone is already down 8.3% on the year.
  • The next Eurostat release, covering June and July — The first hard read on whether European scrap followed the metal benchmark down.

Cannot see

  • Headlines only — the news feed carries no article bodies, so every read below works from a headline, a publisher and a date.
  • Nothing here knows what your product sells for. That depends on the customers you have and the prices you agreed with them, so no figure on this dashboard stands in for it and nothing is subtracted from a scrap price to imply a margin.
  • Import prices are CIF and the export floor is FOB, so freight sits inside one and not the other. They are never subtracted from each other.
  • Customs data covers all aluminium scrap under one code, so a change in grade mix moves a country's figure without any price moving. Finland's own import figure is 1,075 t a month and is mix more than price.
  • Nothing here knows what your 15–20 suppliers quote. European per-grade assessments exist only from Fastmarkets or WVM, on subscription.

Generated by Claude from these headlines and the figures on this dashboard, under the rules in scripts/analyse-news.py. Headlines only — no article bodies. Not investment advice and not a price recommendation.

15 stories push your price up, 5 push it down. A tally, not a forecast — one of them may be the only one that matters.

Asian outlet

Metal price

Scrap market

Energy cost

Demand

Nordics

25 stories kept from 218 collected through Google News RSS — free, no key. The feed carries headlines and links, not article bodies, so every read above was written from a headline. Sources